Keeneland Best Bets

This race is carded for 8 horses.  This is a nice field of maidens going one mile.  When rain is in the forecast you get concerned their maybe scratches, but in a race like this many of these runners should take to the wet surface.

A stand out wet surface sire is Speighstown.  When you look at the Tomlinson Rating for Speightstown it is off the charts.  That’s not the only factor in off track handicapping but it is a good figure to have on your side.

Tomlinson Ratings are something we covered in our earlier post 10 Horse Racing Handicapping Tips You Need To Know About.

#4 Extreme is out of Speightstown.  This colt just ran up at Turfway Park in a 6.5 furlong contest.  He broke from the 8 hole and just ran around the track, he made it up for third but basically ran in the same position throughout the race.  Why would we like that?

This guy looks like a two turn race is up his alley.  Many times horses that run around the track in sprints are looking to stretch out to longer races.  This race adds the distance that this horse could be looking for.

Watching the replay above this horse doesn’t start getting into stride until the race is over.  That’s not good when you are sprinting, but this is ok when you add another 3.5 furlongs to the race.

Couple this with the off track conditions, hopefully jockey Brian Hernández puts this 4 year old colt into position early and has enough left to find his way into the winner’s circle.

The bloodlines are there to handle the wet surface on the mothers side of the breeding is a Pulpit mare, so he should be able to handle the distance  and the trainer Tom Drury is more than capable of winning second out.

 

Race 4 ~ Alw 81000N1X

1 1/16 Mile on Turf

Update #7 Private Island Scratched 

Race 4 is carded as a turf race.  Usually at Keeneland on rainy days they will try their best to keep graded stakes on the grass.  But the undercard of turf races do get switched to the main track.  This is what we are expecting.

#7 Private Island is a horse we would like on either surface.  This son of Bodemeister has performed well on the grass and has the bloodlines to run on the dirt.

He’s coming off his first race as a 3 year old at Tampa Bay Downs which he finished 6th in an overnight stakes race on turf.

This colt broke its maiden on turf at Kentucky Downs and the. ran in a (G2) at Keeneland the Bourbon on turf during the fall meet of 2020.

Today he will race again on lasix and should be fit.  He just ran his best Beyer Speed Figure last race so this colt looks like he grew up a little over the winter.

Update #7 Private Island Scratched 

Race 5 ~ Maiden 20000

1 Mile 1/8 on Dirt

12 runners sign on to compete for $21,000 of purse money and a prestigious winner’s circle photo from Keeneland Race Course.

#1 Bold Victory shows up as a first time gelding making his first start for the Brendan Walsh barn.  This new gelding does sport an 0-7 record when he was trained by Mark Casse.  He has mainly ran on synthetic surfaces throughout his career but does have two starts on dirt.

He finished 3rd in a MSW race at Aqueduct and got 4th in a Stakes race as a maiden at Fort Erie.  This drop in class should wake up this son of Flatter.  Irad Ortiz picks up this mount, he should be dangerous.

#7 Midlaner is the horse we will use to try to upstage the #1 Bold Victory.  He gets the services of jockey Tyler Gaffalione.  This guy is another class dropper.  He ran two respectable races finishing 4 th in both as a two year old.  Both races he ran in good company and broke from the rail.

Eddie Kenneally entered him in a 1 1/8 race at Gulfstream after a couple month layoff and things didn’t go well for this guy.  A last place finish convinced these connections to drop him into a claimer today at Keeneland.

Maybe the drop in class wakes this guy up.  He is running for the second time on lasix and adding blinkers today.  Being the son of Flatter also helps when you are thinking about the weather.  He has it in his blood that he can handle an off track surface.

10 Horse Handicapping Tips You Need To Know About

 

 

Race 4

Update #7 Private Island Scratched 

#7 Private Island

Race 5

#1 Bold Victory

#7 Midlaner

 

We give out our top picks at Santa Anita also.  Click here for our latest selections.

If you are wondering how we do at our selections you can check out here how we did last month.