10 Horse Racing Handicapping Tips
Every handicapper is looking for an edge. Whether you bet on sports like football, basketball, golf or horse racing.
With horse racing learning how to handicap better is an ongoing process. You should never stop looking for new ways to tweak either your wagers or your handicapping outlook in general.
A profitable angle in horse racing can mean the difference between a big score or a worthless ticket. Finding that runner in the past performances that is primed for a big effort is why we go to the race track or OTB.
Horse racing handicapping tips are valuable to any horseplayer. Because, horse racing is complex and not everyone has a trained eye for reading a racing form or eyeballing a thoroughbred in the warmups.
Becoming a better handicapper can be difficult. There is a lot of trial and error involved in this sport. Often times it takes years to fully understand all the information that is packed into past performances.
We will discuss 10 horse racing handicapping tips that will help you become a better horse player. These tips will help you spot more winners and hopefully add to your bottom line.
10) Bloodlines
Bloodlines are a lot tougher for newbies to horse racing to figure out than the veteran horse player. Obviously, long time players remember the sires and mares that produce the runners of today.
Bloodlines can make a difference when handicapping certain races. If you know that a family line has “turf in its blood” than you can expect the horse to run well on the grass. Some horses are dirt horses and their offspring don’t run well on turf.
Having this information in your mind helps you determine which runners you want to include in your wagers.
Turf and dirt surfaces aren’t the only reason you want to know about a horses family lineage. Sires that ran at distances over a mile have tendencies to past that stamina gene along to their offspring. Knowing if the sire is better at producing sprinters or routers should be considered when making your plays.
The Daily Racing Form has a formula that they use to determine if a horse does well at a certain distance. They include a number in the past performances (pp’s) the larger the number the better the horse should be at the distance.
They call these stats the Tomlinson Ratings. These stats cover wet surfaces (wet), turf racing (turf), and the races distance (dst).
You will find a number in parentheses in the top right hand side box of the DRF. Right next to the lifetime record of the horse.
These Tomlinson Ratings aren’t fool proof and do not work every time with every horse. European horses seem to have lower turf Tomlinson Ratings in many cases and that doesn’t reflect their ability on American race tracks. Some horses that are royally bred just are not fast. But, these can help you determine if a horses bloodlines likes grass, a wet track or if it can get the distance of the race.
9) Trainers
Handicapping a trainer is a key angle in the sport of kings. Some trainers prefer a slow and methodical approach when training horses, other prefer the “win now” attitude. This is something to pay close attention to when you handicap races.
Getting to know the trainers that run at the track or racing circuit you follow is important. Some trainers philosophy is to either race the horse into shape or with a first timer, give them a race or two to get experience before they crank it up and be ready to win.
Other trainers will get their horses ready first out. Whether that’s win off a layoff or as a first time starter. Keep this in mind when betting these races. Typically these trainers horses are bet and more than likely you will get a short price. This where you need to make a decision to play the race or sit and watch.
Humans tend to repeat the same process they’ve had success with in the past. So keep a look out for trainers behavioral patterns. Using the Daily Racing Form is a good way to find stats on trainers. These stats can help you toss an over bet runner and find a overlooked horse that can pay a great price.
Below are just a few different things you can look at before you make a decision on what runner(s) you want to have on your ticket.
- 1st Time Out Win Percentage
- 2nd Time Out Win Percentage
- Equipment Changes
- First Time Lasix
- Sprint to Route/ Route to Sprint
- Jockey Changes
- Turf to Dirt/ Dirt to Turf
Some trainers make a living in the claim game and others only use the claiming ranks to dump horses that are underachievers.
Some trainers are really good at claiming horses and running them back and winning. You can find these stats in the DRF, under first off the claim.
Some great trainers are excellent in dirt races but are very poor in turf races. It’s important to study these things when putting your tickets together.
Understanding what trainers are good and betting their horses in the right spots will help you get better as a handicapper and be more profitable.
8) 2 Year Old Starters With Experience
Betting on 2 year olds with the experience of running a race is one of my favorite angles in horse racing. Having this experience of breaking out of the gate and running a race is invaluable to a young horse.
Many times I will be looking over a 2yo race and see a bunch of first time starters that look great. They have good bloodlines, they are working out great and they have great connections. But time after time the horses that have a race under their belt end up on top.
Young horses with talent and experience are definitely something you want to look for in a race when handicapping juvenile contests.
Pay attention to horses with experience who drew an inside position in their initial start. Sometimes horses get bumped around on the inside. A horse drawing outside in a second, third etc. start can get a cleaner trip and run more to it’s potential.
7) Avoid Betting Low Win Percentage Jockeys
This angle is even stronger at smaller tracks around the country. Many times young riders just starting out in the business receive mounts on slow horses. Needless to say theses mounts aren’t desirable to veteran riders with a resume. Young riders take these mounts to gather experience and build their own resume.
Riders without good horses and lacking experience are not a good combination to lay your hard earned money on. Check the past performances and you will find jockey win percentages. These stats are located next the the jockeys name.
Jockeys with 5% or lower win percentages don’t get the job done. Don’t use these jockeys in your daily doubles, pick 3’s or other horizontal wagers.
Many smaller racing circuits usually have a few jockeys that have high win percentages and a bunch with low win rates. Smaller circuits don’t usually have the best horses and the ones the 5%’ers are usually bottom of barrel runners.
Just think about it. Do you want to play a jockey to win, who loses 95% of the time?
If you are a bettor that looks for exactas, trifectas or superfectas these jockeys do come into play in these types of wagers. I would use them underneath for second, third, etc. just not on top.
6) Positive Post Position Draws
One valuable statistic that the Daily Racing Program offers is the statistic on post position win percentage. It’s great because you can check to see if there are any track biases regarding post position. Some tracks it’s a real problem breaking from the rail sprinting, or breaking from a “dead rail” in general.
In some respect this stat can be misleading because it doesn’t include field sizes. For example, in a small field of 6 horses the #1 position with a horse with speed in a field full of closers would be ideal.
The horse will generally get an uncontested lead and be able to dictate the pace. Or even if it doesn’t get the easy lead it puts the other horses that are more comfortable running off the pace closer to the front and having them run a race they are not comfortable running.
If you contrasted that scenario with a large field of 12 horses with 3 more speed horses breaking from the 3,4,5 spots, this inside speed would not be ideal.
This is why a savvy handicapper will pay attention to post position when they look over the form. Spotting an inside running speed horse in a race full of speed switching to an outside draw in a race with less early speed could be a winning angle.
Yes, as the old adage goes, pace makes the race. Finding a runner that didn’t perform well from an inside post now switching to the outside off of other speed horses or being a lone speed horse will benefit a good horse immensely.
This doesn’t just work for need-the-lead speed balls. This works well for stalking horses as well or maybe even better. A stalking runner moving from say the 2 hole switching to the 8 hole will let the jockey find a perfect stalking position off the outer flank of the early speed horses. This in turn should provide a better overall trip and allow the jockey to make their move and avoid any traffic troubles that can occur on the inner parts of the race track.
5) Class Dropping
A class drop will help a good horse improve its form. When a runner moves downward or “drops in class” it will match up the “dropper” with lesser competition. This lower level competition might be just what this horse needs to hit the wire first.
Finding the right level for a horse can be tricky for trainers. There are so many variables and of course trainers have and will continue to spot their horses in races that are too tough for them.
So this can be tricky for handicappers too. You need to read the past performances and surmise if this horses ability will excel in a certain lower class level.
Dropping a horse from graded stakes competition to a lesser overnight or listed stakes race might be the drop it needs to turn its 3rd or 4th place finishes into winning efforts. This is the same for the claimers too. If a 50k claiming race is too tough of a spot for a horse, if they drop to 30k, it might be the winning move.
It’s far more likely to see a 20k claiming horse drop down to a 5k claiming race and win then the other way around. Same for a maiden claiming horse moving up to maiden special weight. It’s more likely to see the horse who struggled in maiden special weight drop to the claiming ranks and win.
Pay close attention to trainers and owner combinations. Some ownership don’t want to play the claiming game. Sometimes they will put underachieving horses up for sale in these claiming races hoping their horse gets claimed. They take the chance that they can win the purse money and collect the claiming price and reinvest that money into more horses with potential.
4) Speed Horses in Small Fields
Speed kills. There’s nothing more dangerous in horse racing than a speed horse in front on a uncontested lead. Horses exert more energy running side by side (dueling) than running alone. Even at a quicker pace it’s better to be a lone leader than go slower and battle anther foe around the oval.
Speed is even a stronger weapon in a small field, less horses to go up and pressure the front runner makes it difficult off the pace runners to get involved.
This lone speed angle can be used on any surface. Turf, dirt or synthetic you see horses go wire-to-wire.
Lone speed is dangerous in races with all different field sizes. It just maximizes the benefit of a lone speed ball in a small field.
3) Sprint to Route/Route to Sprint
Some trainers will start their horses no matter what in sprint races. Whether it be a 2 year old 4.5 furlong race or a 5.5, 6, or 6.5, or 7 furlong race.
Many horses are at their best going “2 turns” or a route of ground, these races are referred to as route races. These races are usually a mile and longer (some tracks have one turn mile races).
Trainers will often times enter their runners in sprint races early and “stretch them out” in later races. This is usually planned out by the connections and bettors should think about this. Trainers have been known to sprint a horse in a race, then send them longer in the next races.
Sprint to route, 2 sprints to a route are angles handicappers look at because trainers can fall into patterns and these patterns can be studied to make educated decisions on these runners.
Generally speaking horses exiting sprints going long will show more early speed than maybe they did in their sprint races. Learning bloodlines or just researching sires you can tell if the horse in the form can handle the distance it is racing at.
This reverse angle works similarly. Some trainers find that their horses are better sprinters after trying them in longer races. They “cut back” their horses to sprint races. The pedigree sometimes won’t allow horses to run a 2 turn race so they are better off sprinting. Learning the bloodlines and watching how trainers approach training their horses will allow you to spot these horses when they change the distance of ground they race at.
2) Stick to One Betting Strategy
Sticking to a single betting strategy will help you focus better and can improve your overall handicapping abilities.
What do we mean by sticking to a solo betting strategy? Well, basically we mean is playing certain types of bets. Horizontal wagers are types of bets that look to pick winners of races. These wagers include daily doubles and pick 3,4,5,6’s. These style of bets allow you to focus on horses that have the capability of winning.
In the racing game you will find these horses that don’t seem to win much but do seem to hit the board and collect checks for their owners. These horses are ideal for players who bet vertical wagers like exactas, trifectas, supers, hi-fives, etc.
Playing these so-called “nibblers” to win the race isn’t a great bet. When you focus on horses that can win you will look for in some cases all or nothing type runners that can win or maybe be up the track. Second or third place isn’t a option when you only need the winner to move on to the next leg of your bet.
If you find yourself better at picking out exactas, you should stick to what you are good at. Trying to play the pick 6 after looking for horses to run second to cash exactas can throw you off.
We here at horseracingplayersclub.com like to play these multi-race wagers, because that’s what we do. We have been handicapping for winners for along time. We found that we have had the most success wagering on doubles, pick 3,4,5’s.
1) Follow One Racing Circuit
They are countless race tracks around the country that offer up thoroughbred racing. There’s race tracks in New York, Florida, Kentucky, Ohio, West Virginia, Maryland and California just to name a few. It’s hard to learn and be an expert on every racing circuit. Remembering jockeys stats and trainer tendencies from all over the country is difficult.
Thats why we suggest following one circuit. The New York racing circuit takes a road trip south in the wintertime. Many of the top trainers will take their best horses to Florida in the winter and then bring them back up north in the spring and summer months. This circuit is a popular one to follow because it offers quality racing all year long.
The Midwest offer quality racing and some of the premier races of the year. Churchill Downs and Keeneland Race Course host prestigious races and Turfway Park runs in the winter months on a synthetic surface.
Keeneland Race Track
California has racing all year long and has two well known racing cathedrals, Santa Anita Race Track and Delmar.
There are many circuits to play and follow. Many of the smaller circuits are underrated and are fun to follow and attend.
Find a track that you are good at, and follow the jockeys, trainers, owners, and horses. Get to know the tendencies of the trainers, jockeys. Use these 10 horse racing handicapping tips so you can become the best handicapper you can be!
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